Free Agency Begins
The free agency negotiation period began this weekend and, according to reports in The New York Times and Commercial Appeal, the Grizzlies primary target is Cleveland power forward Anderson Varejao, a restricted free agent, though the CA also mentions Orlando’s Darko Milicic, New Jersey’s Mikki Moore, San Antonio’s Fabricio Oberto, and Portland’s Jamal Magloire.
Contracts can’t be signed until July 11, but, according to ESPN.com, some agreements have already been reached, with Vince Carter and Luke Walton having agreed to resign with the New Jersey Nets and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively. In addition, Miami’s Jason Kapono has reportedly agreed to a four-year, $24 million deal with Toronto.
An average of $6 million a year is pretty steep for a one-dimensional shooter like Kapono, one who has never averaged more than 11 points per game and is a pretty severe defensive liability. The Kapono signing points to one of the real dangers facing the Grizzlies this summer as they consider what to do with an estimated $8.2 million in cap space: In free agency, there seems to be more risk than reward.
Combine that reality with several other factors –- the Grizzlies, more than most teams, need to keep a sharp eye on team finances; next summer’s free agent class promises to be much better than this one; and the Grizzlies need to plan for future extensions for young players such as Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Hakim Warrick, Kyle Lowry, and Tarence Kinsey –- and there’s plenty of reason for the Grizzlies to sit free agency out and save most of their money.
However, with pressure to spend coming from much of the local media, much of an impatient fan base, and from star player Pau Gasol, who’s looking for a commitment to winning from ownership and the new management team, chances are the team won’t be able to resist splurging for a big-ticket free agent acquisition. One can only hope the team is very careful about how it allocates its resources.
Along those lines, let’s evaluate where the money could go. I’ll start with the player assumed to be the Grizzlies primary target:
Anderson Varejao
The 6’10”, 240 pound Varejao makes a lot of sense for the Grizzlies. At 24 years old, but with three years in the league (including a couple of deep playoff runs), Varejao brings an enticing blend of youth and experience. With Mike Conley Jr., Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, and Pau Gasol – scorers and/or playmakers all – penciled in as the other four starters, the fifth piece to the puzzle needs to be someone who can impact the game in other ways, and Varejao is that kind of player. He’s a quality rebounder (16.4 rebound rate last year, following years of 18.2 and 17.6) and energetic defender and hustle player who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to impact a game. Varejao is, like the dear, departed Shane Battier, a quintessential “little things” player: He’ll rotate well on defense, step out on pick and rolls, force steals, disrupt plays.
Varejao isn’t a shooter, by any means, but should be able to make a positive impact offensively, particularly in the uptempo system Marc Iavaroni envisions. Varejao runs the floor well for a big man, moves without the ball, and can finish plays around the rim. The native Brazilian also played professionally in Spain for Gasol’s old squad, FC Barcelona, a small but not meaningless detail.
The downside? How much is a player like Varejao really worth? He’s coming off a year in which he averaged just under 7 points and 7 rebounds in just under 24 minutes per game. Sure, Varejao’s worth can't be accurately measured by such surface stats, but still. He’s coming off a rookie contract that paid him just under a million dollars last season. But, some reports have suggested that Varejao could fetch up to $10 million a year this summer. True, other young power players with similarly meager resumes (such as Denver’s Nene) have fetched those kinds of contracts, but that’s still crazy talk. As far as I’m concerned, Varejao would be a huge risk for anything more than a mid-level exception kind of deal.
Another problem is that Varejao is a restricted free agent, meaning that Cleveland would have the right to match any offer, though there seem to be differing opinions about what Cleveland will do. Some say that, with title contention in their sights, Cleveland is likely to match any remotely reasonable offer. Others would point to Cleveland being on the cusp of surpassing the luxury tax threshold (which would mean essentially paying double Varejao’s salary in real dollars) with money already tied up in frontcourt starters Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Illgauskas as evidence that they’d be willing to let Varejao walk.
If the Grizzlies really want Varejao but are sensible enough not to throw all their cap room at him in a contract with standard built-in raises, then here’s what they should do: Offer Varejao a front-loaded contract that decreases over time. The large first-year starting salary would act as a deterrent to Cleveland matching because of the luxury tax hit, while the decreasing contract would help prevent the Grizzlies from hitting the tax when they’re faced with offering contract extensions to their own young players in the next few years.
