A bevy of links, analysis, and conjecture on Thursday's draft are on the way, but first a little bit of housecleaning in the form of a couple of team-related notes:
The team's excellent Grizzlies Insider series returns this week with a draft special hosted by the TV team of Pete Pranica and Sean Tuohy and featuring footage from the team's draft workouts. The draft special is set to broadcast on FSN South at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Wednesday and again at 5 p.m. Thursday.
The Grizzlies are again set to compete in the Las Vegas Summer League, which begins July 11th. NBA TV will televise a portion of the games though, currently, only one Grizzlies game — July 13th against the Lakers — is on the television schedule.
We’re a little more than two days away from the draft and rumors are percolating, most of them involving the Grizzlies and Heat in a possible deal for Michael Beasley.
Before I round up the most significant Griz-related rumors from around the web today, let me throw out a couple of tidbits of my own:
Over the past couple of days, I’ve heard from three different team-connected sources that something may be happening with Beasley. Mind you, these are all people without direct connection to any potential negotiations and no-one has quite the same tale to tell: One source says Mike Conley is included but not the #5 pick, another says Mike Miller is included but not Conley, and the third didn’t have any particulars but had the sense that something is afoot involving Beasley. I don’t put much stock into any of these tips individually, but, collectively, it’s clear that there’s a lot of scuttle about a potential Beasley deal surrounding the team.
On another note, with ESPN 730’s The Geoff and Gary Show off the air, I turned the radio on to Sports 56 this morning and heard George Lapides report that former Griz point guard Jason Williams has told local confidants he expects to return to the Grizzlies next season. I didn’t think much of this, but later in the morning I heard the exact same thing from someone unaware of the Lapides report. Apparently, Williams was in Memphis recently and did tell local friends he expects to be back.
J-Will: The Return?
Upon reflection, I don’t think this is as crazy as it appears. The people Williams appeared to have the most problems with during his last stint (aside from Geoff Calkins, anyway) were Pau Gasol and Mike Fratello, and they’re both gone. Williams apparently has a good relationship with Mike Miller (here for now) and, more importantly, Mike Heisley. If the Grizzlies did a draft-day trade that involved Conley or Kyle Lowry, then a veteran point guard would be a need next season. Williams, a free agent, is sure to be someone’s back-up next season, and probably for very cheap. Not totally crazy to think it could be in Memphis.
Now, some of the more notable Griz material around the web today:
ESPN.com’s Chad Ford leads with a Beasley-to-Grizzlies rumor in his draft column today:
Quote:
One source told Insider that the Heat are revisiting trade talks with the Grizzlies. Insider reported several weeks ago that there was talk that Memphis would give up Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry and the No. 5 pick as part of a package for the No. 2 pick. The same source said the Heat are asking the Grizzlies to sweeten the deal by substituting Mike Conley for Lowry. The deal would be Conley and the No. 5 pick to Miami for the No. 2 pick and Daequan Cook.
That trade would land Riley the point guard he covets and still get him a high lottery pick in the draft. The Heat would likely choose between Kevin Love or Brook Lopez at No. 5.
While the price is high for the Grizzlies, they have great depth at the point guard position and could afford to lose Conley. Memphis' biggest need is at the power forward position, and Beasley appears to be a once-in-a-decade talent at the 4 -- a perfect fit for a young and upcoming Memphis team.
It’s been interesting, though, to see how this scenario has evolved over the day, with Ford suggesting in an interactive mock draft with Bill Simmons a little later in the day a slightly different variation:
Mike Conley, Mike Miller & #5 for Udonis Haslim, Daequan Cook & #2
That deal, in particular, would be problematic for the Grizzlies: Giving up an awful lot and leaving the roster wildly out of balance.
Marty Burns at CNN/SI talks to Chris Wallace on the eve of the draft, passing along the suggestion that potentially adding Marc Gasol is the equivalent of a second lottery pick.
But, will Gasol stay with the Grizzlies. A Spanish report linked via Hoops Hype mentions the possibility of the Timberwolves trading for Gasol’s rights. I wonder if this could be part of three-team scenario designed to land the Grizzlies Beasley and the Heat Mayo.
CNN/SI’s Ian Thomsen offers the following notes on the Grizzlies draft:
Quote:
5. Memphis Grizzlies: Word around the league has had the Grizzlies taking either Mayo or Love. One of them figures to be available at No. 5 barring one of these two scenarios: (1) Minnesota goes for Love and Seattle takes Mayo, or (2) a team trades up to the Nos. 3 or 4 for Love or Mayo.
On Monday, however, I heard another rumor that Eric Gordon is the top choice here. Another alternative is Lopez
ESPN.com’s Andy Katz offers more testimony to the veracity of Chad Ford’s terrible, awful, no-good suggestion of a deal involving the #5 and Brian Cardinal for David Lee and an expiring contract:
Quote:
• A potential deal with Memphis and New York apparently has some legs. The Knicks, who have the No. 6 pick, would get the Grizzlies' No. 5 pick and give David Lee and other considerations to Memphis. New York would then select UCLA's Russell Westbrook and Italy's Danilo Gallinari with its No. 5 and No. 6 picks. If Memphis selects UCLA's Kevin Love, that is a strong indicator that the Grizzlies are keeping the pick.
Finally, the Miami Sun-Sentinel’s Ira Winderman continues to warn the Heat away from dealing Beasley in his fine blog.
The Grizzlies can go three different ways with the #5 pick — combine it with other assets in a bid to move up for Michael Beasley, stay put and select a player to keep at #5, or deal down or out of the lottery completely.
Based on the panorama of rumors out there as well as my own contacts with team personnel, it seems clear that all three options are quite possible. Let’s take a closer look at each option, starting with moving up.
Initially, it seemed like the Heat trading the rights to Beasley would be contingent on getting back O.J. Mayo. With Mayo unlikely to slip to the Grizzlies at 5, I thought the path to Beasley would require a relatively complicated three-team deal with the Heat and the Timberwolves, with the Wolves taking Mayo at #3 for the Grizzlies and the Grizzlies drafting for the Wolves at #5 while sending secondary assets to (or taking contracts from) both teams.
But, now, rumors are suggesting the Heat might be willing to deal Beasley without insisting on Mayo, which opens up the possibility of the Grizzlies dealing directly with the Heat.
If the Heat are making Beasley available, how much is too much to give up?
How much is too much to snare the Beast?
With the understanding that Rudy Gay is out of the conversation, it seems like all other Grizzlies assets are open to discussion here. Let’s divide the potential elements of this trade into four areas:
Primary Assets:
#5 pick
Mike Conley
Rights to Marc Gasol
Secondary Assets:
Mike Miller
Kyle Lowry
Hakim Warrick
#28 pick
Miami Dead-Weight Contracts:
Mark Blount (2 years for $15 million)
Marcus Banks (3 years for $13 million)
My initial take was that a reasonable deal for Beasley would consist of one element from each group. The rumor of Mike Miller and #5 for Mark Blount and #2 seemed reasonable. Or perhaps including two pieces from the middle group if Miami also added a secondary asset: Miller, Kyle Lowry and #5 for Blount, Daequan Cook, and #2 would fit the bill.
Where the situation gets tricky is when the Heat demand two primary assets, as is the case with the trade rumors Chad Ford threw out today: Conley and #5 for Cook and #2 or Miller, Conley and #5 for Udonis Haslem, Cook and #2.
The Grizzlies need to focus on two things right now from a team-building perspective: Assembling a core of young players capable of growing into a contender and planning to be able to afford to keep those players together.
Clearly Rudy Gay is part of that core. Currently, the team has three other assets that could join Gay there: Conley, the #5 pick, and possibly Gasol. But Beasley, by all accounts, is at a higher level. He has a chance to be a perennial 20-10 player in the league and the Grizzlies believe he’s a surefire all-star caliber player.
Pair Beasley and Gay and add in a core-caliber guard (in the form of either Conley or someone acquired at #5) and the Grizzlies could reasonably go into next season with their full core in place.
In this sense, if you’re sold on Beasley as an impact player, it’s worth offering anyone other than Gay and Conley to get him: If you put those three players together (or, even better, those four with Gasol), then you can deal with figuring out the right secondary players over the next couple of seasons.
Additionally, taking back dead-weight contracts from the Heat, while perhaps impacting the bottom-line in the short term or limiting what can be accomplished in free-agency, would have no effect on the second piece of the puzzle: Keeping that core together long-term. Both of the Heat’s bad contracts are relatively short-term deals that would come off the books before the Grizzlies would need to resign members of the core.
So, I’d be happy to deal almost anything for Beasley that didn’t include Gay or Conley. But, pairing Conley and the 5th pick, as Ford suggest today? That seems a little steep.
Is Conley too much to give up?
And, yet, I might do it anyway, if the deal left out all secondary team assets and didn’t force bad contracts on the Grizzlies, which would be the case with Conley/#5 for Cook/#2.
In that scenario, you would pair Gay and Beasley in a dynamic duo, you would be solid at center with Gasol and Darko Milicic, you would have decent young options at the point (Lowry and Javaris Crittenton), you would have some tradable secondary assets (Miller and Warrick), and you’d have cap space this summer and/or next to address other needs.
I worry about losing Conley’s upside at a crucial position (I think Conley’s going to be a Top 10 point guard, maybe even Top 5) and I’m very enamored about the possibilities of Conley and Kevin Love working off each other (more on that in the next post). But you have to take a shot at the stardom that Beasley could offer for both its on-court and off-court impact.
How much is too much for Beasley?
I’ve settled on what I’m calling the Four-Point Plan: Take the three groups of elements above and assign 2 points to each of the primary assets, 1 point to each of the secondary assets, and 1 point to each of the dead-weight contracts. Add up the point totals involved in any trade proposal. If it exceeds “4,” then I think that’s too much. (No subtractions for Heat secondary assets.)
For example:
Conley (2) and #5(2) for Cook and #2 would be a four-point trade: Acceptable.
#5 (2) and Miller (1) for #2 and Blount (1) would be a four-point trade: Acceptable.
Miller (1) and Lowry (1) for #2, Blount (1), and Banks (1) would be a four-point trade: Acceptable.
Conley (2), #5(2), and Miller (1) for #2, Haslem, and Cook would be a five-point trade: Too much.
ADDENDUM: On second thought, I don't think I would trade Conley and #5 for Beasley IF Mayo or Love were on the board. I would rather have Conley/Mayo or Conley/Love than Beasley. If those two players were to go #3 and #4, then, sure, I'd do the deal. I'm very torn about giving up this much. If this is the decision being made, then I don't envy Chris Wallace right now.
