Note: This column appears in the July 3rd print edition of the Memphis Flyer.
Demolition: Complete
On draft day, Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace finished what he started with the Pau Gasol trade.
Now that the dust has settled on last week’s NBA draft, longtime Grizzlies fans could be forgiven for not recognizing their team.
The dismantling of a team that suffered through three consecutive playoff sweeps from 2004-2006 began at the ’06 draft, when Jerry West wisely jettisoned local object of worship Shane Battier to bet on the all-star upside of incoming rookie Rudy Gay. The process followed the next summer when the team selected Mike Conley with the fourth pick, adding some need oomph to a point-guard core that had included stale veterans Damon Stoudamire, Chucky Atkins, and Bobby Jackson.
But, this February, new general manager Chris Wallace decided to accelerate the process, wiping the $48 million owed to franchise centerpiece Pau Gasol off the books in exchange for two prospects (rookie guard Javaris Crittenton and Gasol’s rapidly improving little brother, Marc Gasol), two picks, and financial freedom. The deal was wildly ridiculed at the time, but as Pau’s mammoth contract increases and the Grizzlies acquisitions mature over the next three seasons, I suspect the verdict on the deal will change.
The demolition was completed last week, when Wallace paired holdover Mike Miller with the team’s #5 pick to acquire the third-rated player in the draft: USC guard O.J. Mayo, a player widely compared to such current NBA stars as Dwyane Wade, Chauncey Billups, and Brandon Roy. As a bonus, the #28 pick acquired from the Lakers for Gasol turned into Darrell Arthur, the Kansas power forward that dominated the University of Memphis frontline in the college national championship game and slid in the draft based on erroneous reports of a kidney ailment. The Grizzlies had Arthur rated as the 11th best prospect in the draft.
So, little more than a year after taking charge of a capped-out loser lead by a core duo of well-compensated and pushing-30 post-season underachievers in Gasol and Miller, the much-maligned Wallace has completely remade the Grizzlies. The lone holdover from the final playoff run is forward Hakim Warrick: senior Grizzly at age 25.
Wallace claimed after the draft that his team now has as good a collection of young talent as any in the league, and the facts bear him out. Barring trades, the Grizzlies are likely to go into next season with the following players all potentially in the rotation: Conley (age 20), Crittenton (20), Mayo (20), Arthur (20), Gay (21), Kyle Lowry (22), Darko Milicic (23), and Marc Gasol (23).
That’s eight core contributors age 23 and under. The only other team in the NBA that boasts a collection of young talent as deep and (okay, more) promising is the Portland Trailblazers. No other team really comes close, with the Bulls, Hawks, Warriors, and Timberwolves all having four significant under-23 players on their roster.
It’s the deepest and potentially best collection of talent in franchise history, a group bursting with athleticism, upside, and the ability to impact the game at both ends of the floor. The team also has money to spend right now and potentially much more in 2009 if they refrain from long-term free-agent contracts this summer (as I would expect).
But there are also important qualities this assemblage lacks: Experience, proven commodities, a balance of skills. All of the team’s guards are used to handling the ball, not playing without it. None of the team’s power forwards are proven, well, power players. There is clearly work yet to be done. A final product won’t take the floor until at least the fall of 2009.
Unless the Grizzlies sign Methuselah in free agency, this is likely to rival Portland as the youngest team in the league, and without the experience playing together Portland’s core got a year ago. And, typically, very young teams in the NBA lose — in bunches.
It would be helpful to think of this year’s Grizzlies as an unusually promising expansion squad: Year One of a brand-new team. But, with back-to-back 22-win seasons having followed three straight playoff sweeps, does this fan base have the patience for growing pains? Can the palpable and desperately needed post-draft excitement generated by the Mayo acquisition survive the certain-to-be-rough early patches these Baby Grizzlies are going to face? For that matter, can owner Michael Heisley — astutely preaching a long-term plan focused on eventually winning big — accept the bumps along the way? Can coach Marc Iavaroni, already seemingly on shaky ground, survive a bad start?
Those questions won’t begin to be answered until November. Until then, Grizzlies fans can bask in something that’s been in too-short supply over the past few seasons: Hope.
I was hoping to post a detailed offseason preview this week looking at all free-agent options and potential trade targets. But, I don’t have time for that and the Grizzlies are unlikely to be super-aggressive this summer altering a roster that’s already been radically changed. So, instead, I’ll go on the record with what I think would be the best path for the Grizzlies to take in the coming months. Hey, Chris Wallace, Michael Heisley, Tony Barone, and Marc Iavaroni: If you’re reading, here’s the blueprint:
For starters, I would enter this offseason guided by five principles/goals:
1. This team has eight key players under the age of 24, perhaps second only the Portland. I don’t want to add any more players quite that young.
2. I want to save a significant amount of this year’s cap space in order to maximize cap space next summer when Antoine Walker’s $9.3 million contract and most of Greg Buckner’s money comes off the books.
3. Discounting Buckner, all five guards on the current roster are ball-handlers. I’d like to jettison one or two of these players and replace them with perimeter players whose strengths lie in other areas — namely defense and/or shooting.
4. I’d like to add a somewhat experienced frontcourt player who is a rebounder/enforcer, possibly someone who could start at power forward.
5. Ultimately, I want to add a couple of young veteran contributors who can ease the burden on the team’s rookies and second-year players but still potentially be a part of the long-range plan. I also want to add an older veteran or two on a one-year contract to add some experience to the locker room.
With these five principles as my guide, here’s the kind of offseason I’d like to see the Grizzlies have:
Step One: Trade for a frontcourt player.
Disliking the realistic options in free agency, I’d pursue my frontcourt addition via trade. Using some combination of Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, and Hakim Warrick as trade bait, I’d try to acquire a rebounding power forward who could potentially start while Darrell Arthur gets used to the NBA game or until a better option presents itself via the draft, trade, or free agency next summer.
My preferred target: Anderson Varejao.
My offer: Lowry (or Crittenton) and Warrick for Varejao
Anderson Varejao: A young banger with playoff experience.
The Grizzlies were interested in Varejao last off-season as a restricted free agent, but ultimately decided not to sign an offer sheet based on the assumption that the Cavaliers would match. The Cavs played hardball with Varejao and he held out half the year. The result was his least effective season, but he still had an excellent rebound rate and is still the same player he was before: A 6’10”, 240-pounder who is a high-level rebounder and energy guy who can ably defend the best post players. He’s a vet with playoff experience but is still only 25 years old.
Why does Cleveland do this deal? Well, the relationship between Varejao and the team is apparently strained and he is reportedly on the block. Warrick would be an offensive upgrade at power forward for a team that needs scoring options other than Lebron James. Lowry would significantly upgrade the Cav’s defense at the point. The Cavs have four players on the roster who can play the point, but the situation isn’t nearly as crowded as it seems: Eric Snow and Damon Jones are on the last year’s on their deals and are past the point of being reliable contributors. Daniel Gibson is essentially a spot-up shooter. Delonte West is a combo guard who will see a lot of time at the two. So, I think Lowry would play a significant role for the Cavs. Additionally, the Cavs would save $2.5 in salary, or $5 million in real dollars since Cleveland is significantly over the luxury tax. Maybe Cleveland could get better offers, but this would be a good one.
Back-up plans: David Lee of the Knicks, potentially for the same package (though I suspect the Knicks would want Conley) … Josh Boone of the Nets (A promising banger who played with Rudy Gay at UCONN. New Jersey’s frontcourt is overloaded. I’d offer Lowry or Crittenton for Boone and a future second-rounder.) … Minnesota’s Craig Smith (the best affordable free-agent target) … Denver’s Linus Kleiza (for Lowry, though I’m told Denver wouldn’t do this) … Ronny Turiaf could be a free-agent option, but I don’t seen outbidding the Lakers for a reasonable price.
Step Two: Sign a rotation-quality perimeter player.
Here, I’d look for someone who is 24-27 years old, can play the two and three, and can defend and hit a three. And also be had for under the mid-level. This is difficult since, for lower-level free agents, the Grizzlies cap room isn’t much of a competitive advantage. Being well under the luxury tax may be, however.
My preferred target: Kelenna Azubuike
My offer: Azubuike made less than $700,000 last year, so I’m not sure how much he’s going to command on the open market. I’d offer him slightly above market value on a two- or three-year deal and use my cap space to frontload the deal, thus preserving more cap space next summer. Something like a three-year, $7-8 million deal, with descending yearly salaries.
Kelenna Azubuike: Low-cost free agent sleeper?
Azubuike may be the only player out there who fits all of my criteria. A former D-league vet who found a home in Golden State, Azubuike is 24 years old, a solid 6’5”, 220 pounds, and an excellent athlete. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter. His weakness is his ball handling and ability to create off the dribble, but that’s fine because we’re only looking for catch-and-shoot/catch-and-finish types anyway. He’s a little small for the three, but strong enough to pull it off and should continue to evolve into a strong defender.
Other potential targets: Azubuike’s Golden State teammate, Mickael Pietrus (26), would be an even better bet to fill all those roles, but I suspect he’d be asking for more money than I’d want to spend. … Kareem Rush (27) could be beaten out of a job in Indiana by his little brother Brandon. He’s a career 36-percent three-point shooter with good size. Wouldn’t pay much more than the minimum, with only one year guaranteed. … Marc Iavaroni coached James Jones(27) in Phoenix. The 6’8” small forward can’t defend or player multiple positions, but he would add a needed back-up small forward and is an excellent three-point shooter(40% on his career, 44% last season). For a couple of years, front-loaded, for reasonable money, would be worth a look. … Quinton Ross (27) doesn’t have much of an offensive game, but is a quality defender and also, apparently, Darrell Arthur’s cousin. … I wouldn’t pay much more than the minimum for Denver’s Yakouba Diawara (25), but he’s a 6’7” swingman with good defensive skills and an improving three-point shot. Could be worth a flyer. … With J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker acquired on draft-day, the Celtics may let Tony Allen (26) walk. I’d consider him, but I’m not crazy about him … Maurice Evans (29) is a little older than I’d like for a multi-year deal, but he’s physical, can hit a three, and could be getting pushed out of Orlando by Courtney Lee. Worth a look.
Step Three: Fill out the roster with a couple of veterans on one-year, minimum contracts.
A lot of vets looking for minimum deals want to latch onto contenders, not young, rebuilding teams. So, the Grizzlies might want to look at guys really nearing the end or with local/regional ties who would understand their roles and provide guidance to the kids.
Possible frontcourt targets: Lorenzen Wright (Looks about done even though he’s just 32. But, he cares about the city and, presumably, the franchise, probably has a relationship of some sort with Marc Gasol, and would probably like to finish his career in Memphis. I’m no huge Wright fan or Tiger homer, but I don’t think bringing him back for one year on the vet’s minimum would be such a bad thing.) … Adonal Foyle (physical presence and A+ personality. Maybe worth more than the minimum for one year) … Jake Voskuhl (Eric Hasseltine look-a-like spent time in Phoenix with Iavaroni) … Devean George (liable to get better offers) … Michael Doleac (size and shooting at the end of the bench).
Possible backcourt targets: Lindsey Hunter (at 37, could finally be done in Detroit. Jackson State grad could end his career close to home) … Damon Stoudamire (would he want to come back and ride the bench this time for the minimum? Does he owe it to Heisley for his final payday and giving him a shot with the Spurs last season?) … Kevin Ollie (at 35, can he still survive in brief bursts?)
Possible final roster:
PG: Mike Conley/Javaris Crittenton/Lindsey Hunter
SG: O.J. Mayo/Kelenna Azubuike/Greg Buckner
SF: Rudy Gay/Marko Jaric
PF: Anderson Varejao/Darrell Arthur/Antoine Walker
C: Darko Milicic/Marc Gasol/Lorenzen Wright
Varejao has a player option for $6.2 million next season, which is a pretty reasonable number. If he takes it, that’s only $1.2 million more than Lowry and Warrick would be owed. If Azubuike’s second-year salary is around $3 million (or less), the team has only added around $4 to next year’s cap. The Grizzlies would still possibly have eight-figure cap room in ’09. If Varejao opted out and didn’t resign, so be it: Even more cap room to secure a replacement.
The upshot is that you've added a couple of young veterans with defensive ability and playoff experience to ease the pressure on the rookies and second-year players. This would go a long way toward helping next year's team be competitive without derailing the long-range plan.
