A few housecleaning notes to start:
I will not be doing game previews during the preseason because, well, it’s the preseason.
I wasn’t able to do a live game blog because the courtside wireless wasn’t working tonight. Not sure if I’ll do those for the preseason anyway, but hope to make courtside blogging a mostly regular feature during the season.
I do plan on doing post-game blogs for every game I see — live or television — unless other duties keep me from doing so, which is certain to happen occasionally.
That said, let’s do it:
1. Camp Battles — Revised
I gave an early read on training camp battles a week ago. With three preseason games in the books, I think we have a little better sense of how things are shaping up. I suspect that what we saw tonight is a preview of how things will shape up in the regular season, not necessarily in terms of minutes and roles for individual players, but in terms of the general outline of Marc Iavaroni’s rotation.
Iavaroni played essentially an 8-man rotation with a 9th player getting spot minutes (10-15) and used a small-ball lineup (with Rudy Gay at the 4) for significant stretches. If this is what happens in the regular season then, barring injuries, I suspect six players are pretty solidly in this rotation:
Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, and Rudy Gay — these are obvious.
Kyle Lowry — He’s so clearly the team’s best point guard right now (more on this later) that he has to be in the rotation, whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.
Juan Carlos Navarro — The revelation of the preseason. He’ll get murdered defensively against some match-ups, but he gives effort on that end and is such a deadly shooter and crafty playmaker that he has to play.
Darko Milicic — Has been coming off the bench, but has played reasonably well since his bad first game. The Griz didn’t sign him to sit him and need his size and physicality.
That leaves two rotation spots and one spot-minutes role:
2nd point guard — Ultimately Michael Conley takes this role but, for now, Damon Stoudamire has the edge.
3rd big — Stromile Swift has been starting and playing reasonably well, but we all know now to doubt the sustainability of that. Hakim Warrick and Brian Cardinal are also in the mix, with Warrick likely to win out in the end.
4th wing — Casey Jacobsen seems to have the edge over Tarence Kinsey at the moment; Jacobsen played this role in tonight’s game while Kinsey didn’t play. I think Kinsey is the superior overall player, but two things seem to be working in Jacobsen’s favor: He was brought in by the new regime and he’s a much better spot-up three-point shooter, something Wallace and Iavaroni have put a premium on.
2. Point Guard Plus/Minus
I actually think plus/minus numbers are of limited relevance in evaluating individual players, but I give the stat some credence in the team’s current point-guard battle, because all three players are only playing one spot with a relatively equal blend of supporting casts and I think the position sets the tone for the whole team. So, I’m going to track this at the home preseason games.
If you glance at the box score, you’d think Damon Stoudamire was the best point guard tonight, but if you watched the game closely, you’d go with Lowry, and the plus/minus backs that up:
Lowry: +20
Stoudamire: -3
Conley: -9
I’m pretty sure Kyle Lowry has outplayed Damon Stoudamire in every regular season or preseason Grizzlies game in which they’ve both played. At some point that has to be persuasive, right?
3. Rudy’s Progress
Another thing I made a point of watching closely tonight was Rudy Gay’s decision-making. It was pretty shaky in the two games in Spain. It was better tonight.
Gay wasn’t flawless tonight — not even close. He took at least a couple of long jumpers that probably weren’t good shots, but not once did he put the ball on the floor, hover with his dribble, and settle on flinging a step-back jumper at the rim. That’s been the crippling tendency of Gay’s game, both during his rookie season and during last week’s trip to Spain. Tonight, when he got the ball on the perimeter, he either rose up for a set shot, drove into the paint, or rotated the ball to an open man. And he got stronger as the game wore on, shooting 4-13 through the first 3 quarters but finishing 5-5 in the 4th. Add in 9 rebounds and 5 blocks (!) to go with his 20 points, and it was a strong showing.
The Jacob Riis Report
My first up-close look at Corey Brewer made me happy the Grizzlies didn’t take him #4 no matter how long he played pickup ball with Chris Wallace’s kid. Brewer is an alert and active player who seemed to defend well, including a spectacular block to break up a Grizzlies two-on-one fastbreak. But he seems to lack the athleticism, ball-handling, and shooting ability to be a star. He can be a good pro, but I suspect that, a few years down the road, there will be several players drafted after him who will be better.
Tip-Ins:
Marc Iavaroni to an official after Kyle Lowry was called for a blocking foul: “He was there pretty long. I think he was waiting for a bus or something.”
Michael Conley struggled in limited minutes, but his super smooth bounce pass to Mike Miller for a lay-up was a preview of coming attractions.
Juan Carlos Navarro unveiled LA BOMBA for the first time in FedExForum en route to 22 highly entertaining points in 24 minutes. A new fan favorite is born.
