Friday afternoon when I arrived at FedExForum for Chris Wallace’s press conference to discuss the trade of Pau Gasol to the Lakers, I noticed something different about the cinder-block walls in the hallway of the Don Poier Media Center: Several of the series of color placards that adorn the hall were missing — eight in fact. All the images of Pau Gasol had been removed — “ripped down” seems more appropriate considering the remnants of paper and glue still attached to the wall where placards once were. This wouldn’t have seemed all that odd, except that there were still several solo images of lesser former Grizzlies (Dahntay Jones, Lawrence Roberts) adorning the hall.

I asked several team officials whether the removal of the Gasol photos was an official team move or an act of vandalism, and no one seemed to know.

Regardless, it was a fitting image for the abrupt removal of the best player in franchise history. A pre-planned weekend trip kept me from weighing in on the trade in much depth until this late date. But, what I lack in timeliness, I’m making up in sheer volume. Here’s the longest Beyond the Arc post ever:

1. Will a tidal wave of new ticket buyers overwhelm the FedExForum box office now that that terrible, despicable Pau Gasol is finally gone?

Don’t count on it.

Gasol has been an increasingly unpopular figure among a large segment of Grizzlies fans, a dynamic that started early on — well before the team’s 0-12 playoff run cemented a sense of limited potential or Gasol’s trade request in the middle of last year’s lost season was deemed graceless.

Many fans were clamoring for the Grizzles to get rid of Gasol at any cost. “I’d trade him for a bag of Cheetos,” was a common refrain. Well, is Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, and a couple of late first-round picks close enough? Be careful what you wish for.

It may be that a culture change and fundamental break from the persona of a team that’s been losing fans for several seasons was needed and that moving Gasol was the only way to accomplish that. But rebuilding the fan base won’t be as simple as removing a player too many fans had developed an irrational dislike of.

2. Didn’t Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni say they wanted to build around Gasol? What happened?

Yes. That was the mantra early on, one that seemed to be reinforced by the signing of Darko Milicic (the brawny true center Gasol had long pleaded for) and the acquisition of Gasol’s good friend Juan Carlos Navarro.

But Wallace and Iavaroni also referred to needing about 50 games to evaluate their new team. And Milicic, a 22-year-old defensive center on a reasonable contract, and Navarro, a 27-year-old sharpshooter worth more than the future mid-first-round draft pick the Grizzlies used to get him, have present and future value not at all tied to the presence of Gasol.

Wallace admitted in Friday afternoon’s press conference that his thinking relative to Gasol and the trajectory of this team had changed over the course of the season. The league’s fourth-worst record and third-worst attendance can do that. Clearly, the current team model wasn’t working and the decision was made to commit fully to building a new team around a core of Rudy Gay and Mike Conley rather than keep trying to blend young players into the established veteran core.

I pressed Wallace on the age difference between Gasol (27) and Gay (21) and Conley (20) as a factor in the team’s long-term planning, but he dismissed that as a reason for the move. What I should have emphasized, instead, was the financial aspects of trying to keep Gasol while developing Gay and Conley. Gasol’s current contract will top out at around $17 million and will expire around the time the team will presumably want to extend the contracts of Gay and Conley. At that point, the Grizzlies wouldn’t have been able to afford to re-sign Gasol at his established salary while also signing Gay and Conley (and, presumably, whatever high lottery pick to team obtains this summer) to market-value contracts. And, Gasol, who had asked for a trade and continued to suffer punishment from an unappreciative fan base, was highly unlikely to take a pay cut to stay.

So, if the Grizzlies weren’t going to be able to keep Gasol long enough to pair with Gay and Conley when those players entered their prime, what was the point of paying him nearly $50 million in the interim? A decision was made that it was time to start building for the future you want and Gasol wasn’t going to be part of that future. I reluctantly came to agree with that assessment, and even if Wallace didn’t think about the issue in those specific terms, it was a major factor in driving the trade.

3. And this is the best they could do?

Hard to believe, but it maybe it was based on what Wallace ultimately decided was his priority.

I talked to Chris Vernon Friday morning when it seemed like a deal of some sort was imminent and the point I made to him was that there were three types of value the Grizzlies should be looking for if they were shopping Gasol: expiring contracts, draft picks, and a young player (or players) on a rookie contract with the realistic potential to be a significant contributor. I said that I thought it was imperative to get at least two of those three things in any trade for Gasol — expiring contracts alone would not be enough.

You could argue that the Grizzlies got all three in this deal: A large expiring (Kwame Brown), two first-round picks, and two young players with upside (Javaris Crittenton, the rights to Marc Gasol). The problem with that rosy analysis is that on two counts (player and picks) what the Grizzlies got back is far more marginal than what I was hoping for. Crittenton could be good, but he’s not as safe a bet as such potential targets as Chicago’s Joakim Noah or Atlanta’s Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, or Josh Childress. The draft picks — likely to be late first-rounders — aren’t worthless, but are not as valuable as the potential lottery picks that might have been gotten from Chicago or Charlotte or Miami.

Wallace insisted Friday that he’d explored all trade possibilities and that he was confident nothing else would shake out. I thought it was crucial that the team get either a more surefire rookie-contract player and/or more substantial draft pick(s) in any trade for Gasol. That didn’t happen here. So, this is not the trade I wanted to see happen. But I do understand the rationale behind it.

4. Kwame Freaking Brown?

It’s unfortunate for the Grizzlies from a public perception perspective that the expiring contract they received in this trade is attached to such a notorious name, a former number-one overall pick who is even more synonymous with the phrase "draft bust" than current Grizzlies Darko Milicic and the soon-to-be-departing Stromile Swift.

But fans should get past the name. The Grizzlies did not trade for Kwame Brown. They traded for Kwame Brown’s Expiring Contract. It’s understandable that casual fans would struggle to comprehend this since, apparently, a lot of the local sports media doesn’t. The first question Wallace fielded Friday was about whether it would still be a good trade if Brown doesn’t pan out and the Grizzlies don’t resign him. Another reporter asked several questions in an attempt to understand the salary ramifications of the deal.

Wallace was diplomatic in his answer about Brown’s future with the Grizzlies, but let me be clear: The Grizzlies did not trade for Kwame Brown because of any interest they had in him as a player. They strictly traded for his contract in order to open up cap space this summer and potentially in the summer of 2009. Will Brown play for the Grizzlies? Presumably. Will the team resign him this summer? Possible but unlikely, and only at a dramatic salary reduction.

5. So, this was a good trade?

Well, I certainly wouldn’t say that. I’m disappointed by it, but more for the failure to make things work here with Gasol than the direction the team has ultimately decided on. As bad as this trade appears on the surface, it’s not an irrational one.

It signals a full commitment to a team built around a core of Rudy Gay. Mike Conley, and whomever the team makes a high-to-mid lottery pick this summer. This is probably a wise if risky decision, and this trade accelerates that movement and gives the team plenty of options, flexibility, and assets to work with to make that happen.

The pressure is now on Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni to make it work. Are they up to the challenge? Do they really know what they’re doing? The truth is that no one can really be sure yet. Reasons for both hope and skepticism abound: Wallace track record before coming to Memphis was sketchy at best, but he made the right pick on draft day with Conley when Florida’s Joakim Noah or Corey Brewer might have been more fan- and media-friendly picks. He made a smart trade for Navarro, even if the presence of Gasol made that possible. And I still defend the Darko Milicic signing as a smart gamble based on the available free-agent options. Minor roster moves — signing Casey Jacobsen while giving up on Tarence Kinsey; signing Andre Brown while giving up on Alexander Johnson; giving up too soon on 10-day-contract guy Bobby Jones — have been more questionable, but also seem to have the imprint of the coaching staff on them. As for Iavaroni, his first-rate resume hasn’t immediately translated into a rousing coaching performance, as I’ve acknowledged, but it’s far too soon to hand down judgment on him.

It’s conventional wisdom that the team getting the best player wins any NBA trade and, in terms of immediate value, that’s usually true. But one thing that should be noted is that the recent track record for trades of this type — essentially giving away an all-star-level player in his prime — is actually not that bad. Minnesota (which did get an emerging star in Al Jefferson) and Philadelphia, respectively, certainly haven’t recovered from cutting bait on Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson, but it’s too soon in both cases to pass ultimate judgment and, more crucially, those are both former MVPs, players clearly superior to Gasol.

But, look at three recent trades far more similar to the one the Grizzlies just made:

December, 2004: Toronto trades Vince Carter to New Jersey for Alonzo Mourning, Aaron Williams, Eric Williams, and two first-round picks.

The Raptors got neither the immediate financial flexibility (none of the veterans were large expiring contracts) nor promising prospect out of this deal that the Grizzlies just obtained and the draft picks were equally marginal. Essentially, they decided the franchise needed a culture change and did so by jettisoning an increasingly unpopular and unhappy star and turning their franchise over to a budding star (Chris Bosh) then in his second season. Sound familiar?

Toronto finished 33-49 the year they made the trade and fell to 27-55 the next season. But, lead by on overhauled team built around Bosh they made the playoffs last season (going 47-35) and are on pace to get there again this season.

February 2005: New Orleans trades Baron Davis to Golden State for Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis

The Hornets got only modest immediate cap space (Dale Davis was expiring; Claxton was not), no draft picks, and no young prospects for Baron Davis, at that point a two-time all-star still in his prime. At the time, Davis seemed injury prone and also the focus of some chemistry problems. The team was struggling and the Hornets decided to go a different way without the burden of Davis’ big contract. (Again, sound familiar?)

The Hornets finished 18-64 that season, tied for the second worst record in the league. The ping-pong balls did not do the Hornets any favors that summer, the team sliding down the 4th in the draft, a pick they used to select Davis’ point-guard replacement, Chris Paul. The Hornets flirted with .500 the next two seasons (38 and 39 wins, respectively) while making some smart decisions with their newfound financial flexibility (getting Tyson Chandler from Chicago, for instance). Now, Paul is an MVP candidate and the Hornets, at 32-14, own the second-best record in the Western Conference. (This trade, it should be noted, worked out pretty well for Golden State, too.)

June 2007: Portland trades Zach Randolph (along with Fred Jones and Demetris Nichols) to New York for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.

The Blazers got no immediate cap space (they had to buy out two years of Steve Francis’s pricey contract), no draft picks, and only a marginal prospect (Frye) in this trade for an established 20-10 quality power forward in his prime. Essentially, the decided to commit to their rebuilding effort and gave away an established veteran they felt didn’t fit, turning their team over to a talented second-year player in Brandon Roy. (Again, sound familiar?).

The big difference for the Blazers was that they had their full young foundation (Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, etc.) in place before dealing Randolph whereas the Grizzlies are only halfway there. And, the excitement over the drafting of Oden kept this seemingly lopsided deal from upsetting the fans. This season, the Blazers look considerably ahead of schedule without Randolph (or Oden), in the thick of the playoff race at 27-19.

6. What kind of cap room is the team really going to have and what can they do with it?

It’s hard to really pin down right now, but I count roughly $39 million devoted to 9 players next season as of now. That could give the team as much as $18 million depending on where the cap comes in. But, you have to subtract whatever money still owed to Damon Stoudamire that counts against the cap (around $2 million, I’m guessing), factor in a likely cap hold for Juan Carlos Navarro (a minimal hold based on his current contract, though actually resigning him would cut into the room more significantly), and cap holds for the team’s two first-round draft picks (combined estimate: around $5 million). ESPN’s John Hollinger is estimating cap room for the Grizzlies this summer at around $15 million, but I think it could end up being closer to $10 depending on how everything shakes out.

Wallace has suggested the team could take a pass on free-agency in 2008 and try to keep most of this cap room (bolstered by losing the $6 million contract of Jason Collins) for 2009, when the team could have as much or more to spend depending on how the roster’s managed.

Who’s available this summer? Gilbert Arenas and Elton Brand are the marquee potential free agents, but given the timetable the team seems to be giving itself, breaking the bank for those veterans wouldn’t seem prudent. More interesting are some of the restricted free agents who could be on the market: Emeka Okafor, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Monta Ellis, and Craig Smith are names that I think could be worth a look for the Grizzlies this summer, depending on how the draft shakes out, though the team’s negotiations with Cleveland’s Anderson Varejao and Andres Nocioni this summer shows how hard it can be to pry a restricted free agent from another team.

Wallace said that the 2009 class will be better, but I haven’t had a chance to really study that. The players the Grizzlies would likely have the most interest in are players currently on rookie contracts and it’s hard to project two years out which of those will be restricted or even unrestricted free agents.

The conventional wisdom is that a small-market franchise in the midst of a losing streak wouldn’t be able to sign a high-profile free agent anyway. Chris Wallace made a plausible case against that line of thinking Friday, insisting that the details of the contract offer hold more sway than location in courting free agents.

Despite the cap room, I’ll be surprised if the Grizzlies sign any max or near-max contract players in free agency. I suspect free agency will be used to fill in roster gaps but that the core building will occur via draft and trade.

7. Not spending it? Wouldn’t that be purely a business decision and not a basketball decision? In fact, isn’t this whole trade just a cost-cutting move designed to help Michael Heisley sell the team?

There are really two questions here:

Was the Gasol trade more a business decision than basketball decision?

If so, does that also preclude it from being a good basketball decision?

There have been plenty of suggestions that this was only done to reduce costs and help facilitate an eventual sell of the franchise.

There’s no doubt this franchise is bleeding money. Attendance is down again. The ouster of President of Business Operations Andy Dolich was apparently related to his salary as much as performance. I’ve heard whispers and then some about other cost-cutting or financial tight-fistedness around the franchise.

Was this trade solely directed the team’s financial bottom line and not long-range basketball strategy? Wallace denied any directive from ownership to make this trade, but, really, what else would he say? There are mixed signals on this point and, frankly, I don’t feel comfortable making a strong assertion either way.

Regardless, even if this trade was strongly motivated by the team’s current finances, that doesn’t mean it isn’t also part of a reasonable team-building strategy. What a lot of people don’t understand about modern pro sports is, particularly the NBA, is that financial decisions and team-building decisions are linked.

I’ve never been a proponent of spending money just because you have it: That’s how you end up multi-year deals for players like Brian Cardinal. The reality is that this team is more likely to be built via draft and trade than free agency and the team’s brass needs to plan ahead to be able to extend of the contracts of Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, and next year’s top pick. That’s where the savings from the Gasol trade will ultimately go.

8. Is Javaris Crittenton a player?

Impossible to say, but there are lots of good indicators here: He’s got great size for a point guard (6’5”). He’s extremely young (Crittenton didn’t turn 20 until about a month ago), which makes his college production and decent pro play in limited time so far more impressive. He’s been turnover prone (not unusual for a 20-year-old point guard; they can’t all be Conley) and hasn’t shown much range on his jumper, but he’s been able to make shots (49% from the floor so far) and seems to have the tools to be a good defender. I do know that Grizzlies scouts were high on him in the run-up to last year’s draft.

9. Okay, what gives at point guard?

This trade gives the Grizzlies essentially three rookie point guards in Conley, Crittenton, and Kyle Lowry. Wallace has said since the trade that the team intends to “lock all three in a room and see which two come out.” He’s also plainly stated the intent to trade one of the three in the near future, implying that a trade this month was possible but would almost certainly happen before the start of next season.

So, who’s the odd man out? Well, I think Wallace is being a little disingenuous with his comment about all three competing. Conley, clearly, is the man at the point. The real contest is between Lowry and Crittenton to see who emerges as the back-up and who is put on the market. My guess is that, as much as I like him, Lil Lowry is the player who will eventually be dealt. Three reasons why:

1. With one more year left on his rookie contract, the Grizzlies will get to keep Crittenton longer before having to worry about extending him.

2. Crittenton’s size gives the team more options. Assuming he pans out, he can play behind Conley as the backup or alongside him as the two-guard. Crittenton’s size also allows him to pair with a smaller two-guard (such as Navarro) with causing the defensive problems the team has had when trying to pair Lowry and Navarro.

3. I’ve heard rumblings this season that the coaching staff may not be too high on Lowry.

10. How about Marc Gasol? Really? Marc Gasol? He won’t actually wear a Grizzlies uniform, will he?

The big, chubby kid who used to pal around FedExForum with Johnnie West, nobody thought the younger Gasol brother was much of an NBA prospect. But, he headed back to Barcelona and has apparently turned himself into a player. He was regarded highly enough by scouts to be talked about as a potential late-first-round pick last summer, eventually being selected by the Lakers in the mid-second round. And Gasol has apparently played well in Europe again this season. Since any halfway skilled 7-footer has a shot at making the League, you have to consider Marc Gasol a reasonable prospect.

That said, I’d be surprised if he ever wears Beale Street Blue. This is another case of somewhat misfortunate coincidence for the Grizzlies. The team wanted to deal with the Lakers because of the size of Kwame Brown’s expiring contract but presumably wanted to add more future value to the deal from a team that didn’t have much to add — only Crittenton and some marginal future draft picks. It just so happened that the Lakers also held to rights to the younger Gasol, who could be a useful commodity. So the Grizzlies got him thrown in. I suspect we’ll see Marc Gasol used in a trade of some sort sometime in the next couple of seasons.

11. Are those draft picks worth anything?

They could be. The way the Lakers are playing now and as solid as their core looks for the next few seasons, both picks are highly likely to fall in the 24-30 range in both 2008 and 2010. (The protection on those picks — top-three protected in ’08 and top-six protected in ’10 — is almost certainly meaningless.)

The success-rate of draft picks certainly declines the deeper you go, but recent history suggests that there will be plenty of significant players available to the Grizzlies with those picks. Looking at players picked in the 24-30 range over the past five years, three names jump out: Kevin Martin, Josh Howard, and Leandro Barbosa. But, even beyond that trio, there are plenty of solid role players: Kyle Lowry, Jordan Farmar, Sergio Rodriguez, David Lee, Jason Maxiel, Delonte West, etc.

Someone I talked to on Friday afternoon complained that good teams sell those kinds of picks instead of using them. But, after some thought, I’d argue that point. Smart teams find value there. The Phoenix Suns have been selling off late-first round picks for several season, but have ended up passing on players such as Lowry, Farmar, and Rajon Rondo while overspending in free-agency for point guard Marcus Banks. A team on a budget, like the Grizzlies, can help themselves immensely by finding contributing players with late-first-round picks.

Another possibility to consider is that the Grizzlies may not keep both picks. The team owes Washington a pick from the Navarro trade. A late first-rounder from the Lakers in 2010 might be a good one to ship out to fulfill that deal.

12. What does this mean for Juan Carlos Navarro?

Well, after taking a short-term pay cut to come to the NBA and play with his friend Gasol, Navarro can’t be happy about the deal. I’m sure he wishes he was accompanying Gasol to Los Angeles.

Wallace said Friday that he met with Navarro personally to assure him the team valued him for his own game and not just his connection to Gasol. Navarro is playing for a contract right now, so I wouldn’t expect his effort to flag in the wake of this trade.

Navarro will be a restricted free agent this summer and the team’s interest in resigning him is likely to be partly related to what happens in the draft. If the Grizzlies come out of the draft with a scoring guard such as Eric Gordon or O.J. Mayo, the Navarro is probably less likely to be resigned. But even if that were the case, the team could use its free-agency leverage to move Navarro in a sign-and-trade deal.

13. How does the frontcourt play out in the short term?

Does Iavaroni continue to play small with Navarro in the lineup and Rudy Gay at the four? With the need to find minutes for three point guards in addition to Navarro, I suspect the answer is yes. The other possibility would be starting Hakim Warrick. Even if he comes off the bench, look for Warrick’s minutes and shots to increase.

Darko Milicic, coming off consecutive double-doubles should see his minutes rise, as long as his play warrants it, and emerges as second only to Conley as the most important player to watch over the next few months.

My guess is that Monday acquisition Jason Collins will edge out Kwame Brown for back-up center minutes over Kwame Brown. Once the team is dealing with a full roster again, I wouldn’t expect Andre Brown or Brian Cardinal’s minutes (or lack thereof) to change much, so I’d personally like to see Cardinal get at least some spot minutes.

14. Will there be other roster moves this season?

Beyond the Stromile Swift-Jason Collins deal set for Monday? Possibly but unlikely. Once these deals go through, the team will be back up to the league’s roster minimum and will have no need to hit the waiver wire or 10-day-contract circuit to fill out the roster.

Wallace did leave the door open, but just a crack, for other moves, suggesting the possibility of moving one of the point guards before the deadline. I think that’s unlikely. I suspect the team would like to get a longer look at Crittenton before making a move with Lowry and with several point guards likely to go in the first-round of next year’s draft, teams in the market for a young point guard are likely to want to see if they can address that in the draft before doing so via trade.

The one thing that could happen, if the team really wants to clear cap space is a Gasol-like trade of Mike Miller for an expiring contract. But I wouldn’t expect to see that.

15. What happens this summer?

Plenty is my guess. Remember that draft day two years ago when the Blazers made seven trades (if my memory is correct) in one day, most of them minor? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies similarly busy this summer, with Wallace using his barrel of assets to aggressively make over the team’s roster. The team will have three picks in the draft with a bundle of potential trade chips (Lowry, Miller, Warrick, the rights to Gasol). I’ll be very surprised if there’s not a move or so made even before the free-agent period kicks in after the draft.

16. Should Grizzlies fans start recording college games?

I know I am. Search your listings for Kansas State (Michael Beasley), Indiana (Eric Gordon), and USC (O.J. Mayo). That’s just for starters and just for the Grizzlies own first-round pick. With a late first from the Lakers and a high second of their own, pretty much every viable prospect for next year’s draft should be on the team’s radar. We’ll be getting into this stuff much more going forward.

17. What about Mike Miller?

I have it on good authority that Miller was very available on draft day last year. ESPN’s Ric Bucher has reported that Miller was also discussed with the Lakers. And now Cleveland papers are reporting that the Cavs could make a play for Miller. Clearly, no one will be surprised to see Miller dealt — now, this summer, or next season. That said, he’s having a very good season again and I hear that the coaching staff thinks very highly of him. As the lone significant veteran on the team, his role is up for grabs.

18. What about this deal for the Lakers?

Love it. How Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom all eventually coexist is an issue, but one I assume Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant can handle.

Most thoroughly predictable aspect of the deal: Gasol plays well; the Lakers play well, win and potentially advance in the playoffs. And, when all that happens, fans here complain: “Why didn’t Gasol ever play this well or this hard when he was here?” And the answer will be that he did — the teams just weren’t as good. I eagerly await the inevitable whining.

19. Was Jerry West involved in this deal?

A conspiracy-minded friend brought this up before the press conference and I initially dismissed it. But after more thought, maybe there’s reason for suspicion. West is apparently on the payroll in some kind of consultant capacity — I’ve asked Heisley this personally and he declined to deny it. I also heard Friday night that West called some friends locally and alerted them to the trade before it happened. (Of course, it’s possible he knew about it from the Lakers perspective.)

20. Will Gasol get booed when he comes back to Memphis?

If he was coming back in Laker purple and gold in the next few weeks, I’d say yes. But the Lakers won’t play in FedExForum again until next season. Hopefully, by that time, fans will have cooled off of their irrational dislike of the guy, but I doubt it. So, I expect there will be a noticeable portion of boos when he comes back next season, which will reflect poorly on the city’s fans.

Submitted by Chris Herrington on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 11:39pm.
Chris Herrington's blog | add new comment | email this blog