Well, the odds stayed true to form last night for the Grizzlies. They went into the lottery most likely to end up with the fifth pick, and that’s just what happened. The reaction has been typically hysterical and morose, though I’m not sure why so many fans felt the Grizzlies were entitled to a top pick this year or that the team got “screwed” in not getting one of those picks. I think my favorite reaction came from a fan at the lottery party at the downtown Flying Saucer last night, as quoted in this morning’s Commercial Appeal. “They don’t like us,” the fan said.
Who is “they”? The randomly selected four-digit combination used to determine the top three picks? Probability has a grudge against the city of Memphis? It’s official: Math hates the Grizzlies.
Marc Iavaroni seemed serene about the situation at the Saucer last night. And, thankfully, other Grizzlies insiders I’ve communicated with haven’t been wallowing in disappointment but are instead moving forward through the process of what should be a very active and important offseason.
The first round of mock drafts are out and help set-up the conversation for the coming weeks:
ESPN.com’s Chad Ford’s initial mock draft has the Sonics taking Jerryd Bayless at #4 and O.J. Mayo slipping to the Grizzlies at #5. At the end of the first round, he projects the Grizzlies taking Aboriginal Australian Man of Mystery Nathan Jawai even with Tiger Hero Chris Douglas-Roberts still on the board.
The Draft Express mock has the Grizzlies taking Kevin Love at #5 OVER Mayo and small-school big-man Jason Thompson at #28.
NBADraft.net [http://www.nbadraft.net/] has the Grizzlies taking Mayo at #5 (with Love falling to #13) and Jawai at #28.
CNN/SI’s Ian Thomsen has the Griz taking Love at #5, also over an available Mayo. He’s got Florida big man Marreese Speights falling to #28, which seems unlikely.
There’s also a little bit of early trade scuttle starting to emerge. Ford’s mock suggested Miami might be willing to deal out of the #2 slot if Derrick Rose isn’t available. True Hoop offers more testimony on that subject.
If that’s true, should the Grizzlies explore the possibility of moving up to snatch Michael Beasley? Of course. I wouldn’t include Rudy Gay or Mike Conley (well, maybe Conley) in a deal of that type, but the #5 pick and any number of the team’s secondary assets would be in play. That said, if Miami is looking to deal the pick, I suspect they could get ahold of a higher-quality veteran asset than the Grizzlies could offer. (And if you think this scenario is a reason to wish the team still had Pau Gasol as a potential trade chip, I’d agree with you.)
A more realistic scenario might be the try to package a couple of secondary assets for a second pick in the late lottery. In a separate story today, Chad Ford wrote this:
• Look for a number of this year's lottery picks to be for sale the next few months. Numerous sources have said that the Heat, Timberwolves, Sonics, Knicks, Clippers, Bucks, Bobcats, Nets and Blazers are all open to trading their picks if the right deal came along.Teams like the Wolves, Sonics, Bucks, Bobcats and Blazers are already loaded with young players. What they need are veterans who can add leadership and depth. Teams like the Heat, Knicks, Clippers and Nets seem to be focused on winning now.
I’ve been thinking about the idea of trying to work out a deal with the Bobcats for a few weeks now. Consider that team’s current situation: They’ve got a quality core of players just entering their prime (Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, Emeka Okafor, Raymond Felton) now paired with a coach (Larry Brown) who probably isn’t interested in five-year plans or developing rookies and they play in an Eastern Conference that provides plenty of room for immediate mobility. This is a team that has every reason to be targeting the playoffs right now. Wouldn’t they be better served by adding a couple of established contributors to their rotation rather than adding a rookie at #9? And wouldn’t a bulldog point guard like the Philly-connected Kyle Lowry be attractive to a defensive-oriented former point guard like the Philly-connected Larry Brown?
What about Lowry and Hakim Warrick for Charlotte’s picks at #9 and #38? Wouldn’t this be a good deal for both teams? The Bobcats would have the depth to take a run in the East this year and the Grizzlies would have picks at #5 and #9 to secure two of the following group of players to add to Gay and Conley as a young core: Mayo, Love, Anthony Randolph, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon.
This is the first of many scenarios I’m sure I’ll think up in the coming weeks. I’m interested in hearing reader ideas as well. I’m going to hold off on updating my own Grizzlies draft rankings until after measurements are taken at the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp next week.
When I wrote about using secondary assets to acquire a mid-late lottery pick, I should have also included cap space. I think it's unlikely the Grizzlies could lure a major free agent (because the best are all restricted) this summer, but I think taking on an expendable contract from a team trying to shed salary in exchange for adding a pick is something that should be looked at, as long as the contracts coming back aren't so long or egregious that it would negatively impact the ability to resign Rudy Gay, etc.
I've written about Love a few times and will do so again when I update my draft rankings after the Orlando camp. I can see why people think he could be a bust -- I used to think that too. But I'm convinced he'll be a valuable player. To me, Randolph is the interesting risk/reward option.
On CDR: I don't think anyone would object to picking him at #28 if available. I don't think he fits a need particularly (not a defender or long-range shooter) and don't believe for a second that selecting him would sell many tickets, but CDR at #28 would just be good potential value.