After a dreadful return home Wednesday night against the New York Knicks, the Grizzlies look to rebound tonight against another middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference team, the 4-5 Milwaukee Bucks.
I’ll be reporting live from the Forum. To set the table, three observations on tonight’s game:
1. Mirror Images: The Grizzlies and Bucks are remarkably similar teams: Both teams are built on the foundation of a sweet-shooting two-guard (O.J. Mayo/Michael Redd), an athletic small forward (Rudy Gay/Richard Jefferson), and a tough, skilled, but not terribly athletic center (Marc Gasol/Andrew Bogut). Both teams are juggling an unsettled point guard competition (Mike Conley-Kyle Lowry/Luke Ridnour-Ramon Sessions) and have a rotation of power forwards who don’t have much power (Darrell Arthur-Hakim Warrick/Charlie Villanueva-Luc Mbah a Moute). Both teams were abysmal defensively last season, made an organization-wide commitment to improve on that end signaled by coaching hires (for the Griz, assistant Kevin O’Neil; for the Bucks head coach Scott Skiles), and have opened the season much better on that end of the floor (the Grizzlies are currently 11th in defensive efficiency, the Bucks 14th). And both teams seem to be suffering offensively due to this focus (the Griz 28th, the Bucks 26th). The good news, from the Grizzlies perspective, is that they’re the younger, cheaper version, with much more upside (especially on the wings).
2. Be Aggressive: In Wednesday’s preview, I implored the Grizzlies to attack the rim against a Knicks team with a weak interior that was last in the league in blocked shots. Well, the Grizzlies only outscored the Knicks in the paint by 2 and went to the line a subpar 22 times. So, I’m going to try again.
The Bucks have only one quality power player in their frontcourt rotation in Bogut, are 28th in blocked shots per game, and dead last in opponent free-throw attempts, allowing 32.4 free-throw attempts per game. Marc Gasol may not have quite as easy a match-up as he did against New York, but the Grizzlies guards and wing players need to be aggressive attacking the basket tonight. The Bucks also play weak-defending point guard Luke Ridnour 30+ minutes a game. Whoever Ridnour is checking — Conley, Lowry, Mayo — should be able to exploit him.
3. A Welcome Absence: Bucks star Michael Redd has been out with a sore ankle and is likely to miss this game as well, which is part of a welcome early-season trend for the Grizzlies. The Griz have played two games against Golden State without Monta Ellis and one without Corey Maggette. They’ve also played Sacramento without Brad Miller and Francisco Garcia. In the coming weeks, the Grizzlies are likely to play Sacramento again without Garcia and leading scorer Kevin Martin and the San Antonio Spurs twice without starting backcourt Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. With two games against the Utah Jazz later this month, it’s a shame their star point guard, Deron Williams, is already back from his pre-season injury.
The Jacob Riis Report: The Bucks frontcourt rotation has been unpredictable so far this season. Former top overall pick Bogut has been struggling mightily offensively, averaging 8 points per game on under 40% shooting the past five games, but has been terrific on the boards all season. At power forward, incumbent starter and breakout candidate Charlie Villanueva has also rebounded very well, but has shot terribly (38%) and is steadily losing minutes to rookie surprise Luc Mbah a Moute, an undersized (6’8” 230) second-round pick supposed to be a defensive energy guy who has been much more of late, averaging 12 points and 8 rebounds in his past five games.
